Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | MTST -175 NAU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +29 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -6.9 (+22.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -6.3 (+22.7) | 142.1 (-13.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -4.0 (+25.0) | 140.8 (-11.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -3.7 (+25.3) | 142.6 (-13.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -4.6 (+24.4) | 144.0 (-15.0) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | MTST 76 – 65 NAU |
| Jan 4, 2026 | MTST 77 – 68 NAU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | NAU 69 – 64 MTST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MTST 58 – 53 NAU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | NAU 76 – 71 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-7 | 7-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 76.6 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#275) | -8.8 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#268) | -0.13 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#268) | -0.92 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#284) | 0.498 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 28.3 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.2 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 18.3% | 21.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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