Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | MTST -300 NAU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +5 | 111 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -7.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (-35.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -4.8 (+0.2) | 144.3 (-33.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -4.7 (+0.3) | 143.8 (-32.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -4.4 (+0.6) | 143.6 (-32.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -4.3 (+0.7) | 144.2 (-33.2) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | MTST 76 – 65 NAU |
| Jan 4, 2026 | MTST 77 – 68 NAU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | NAU 69 – 64 MTST |
| Feb 10, 2024 | NAU 76 – 71 MTST |
| Jan 12, 2024 | MTST 79 – 50 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-14 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#179) | -5.0 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#275) | -0.79 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#222) | -1.21 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#293) | 0.437 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 21.2% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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