Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | NAU +205 MTST -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +11 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -8.6 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (+1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -7.4 (-3.6) | 143.0 (-2.0) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -7.1 (-3.9) | 142.1 (-1.1) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -6.9 (-4.1) | 140.9 (+0.1) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -7.2 (-3.8) | 142.7 (-1.7) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | MTST 77 – 68 NAU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | NAU 69 – 64 MTST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MTST 58 – 53 NAU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | NAU 76 – 71 MTST |
| Jan 12, 2024 | MTST 79 – 50 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 12-6 |
| Home | 9-7 | 11-2 |
| Away | 1-13 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#306) | 2.2 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#314) | -0.13 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#298) | 0.16 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.407 (#348) | 0.505 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 28.7 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.1% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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