Betting Lines
| Spread | NAU -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | NAU -105 MTST -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +5 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -0.4 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (-9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -0.1 (+5.1) | 143.5 (-10.5) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -0.3 (+5.3) | 140.6 (-7.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAU -0.3 (+4.7) | 141.1 (-8.1) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -0.2 (+5.2) | 142.8 (-9.8) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | MTST 76 – 65 NAU |
| Jan 4, 2026 | MTST 77 – 68 NAU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MTST 58 – 53 NAU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | NAU 76 – 71 MTST |
| Jan 12, 2024 | MTST 79 – 50 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-8 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#240) | -1.2 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#251) | -0.76 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#256) | -0.61 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#276) | 0.457 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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