Funky Claude was running in and out / pulling kids out the ground "Smoke On the Water" - Deep Purple
Conference USA · Great Southern Bank Arena · January 4, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread MOST -1.5 Home covered
O/U 134.5 Over
Money MOST -120 / NMSU +100
Model Predictions
Spread Total MOST win
Actual MOST +7 171 Won
Massey NMSU -1.6 (+8.6)
Massey Totals 134.3 (+36.7)
Bradley-Terry 38%
Weighted B-T 31%
Efficiency Plus ML NMSU -0.8 (+7.8) 134.4 (+36.6) 47%
Baseline Tuned ML MOST -0.0 (+7.0) 132.3 (+38.7) 50%
Baseline ML NMSU -0.1 (+7.1) 134.2 (+36.8) 49%
Baseline Plus ML NMSU -0.2 (+7.2) 134.7 (+36.3) 49%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 23, 2026 MOST 8475 NMSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MOST NMSU
Overall 16-18 16-16
Conference 8-12 8-12
Home 11-7 10-5
Away 3-10 3-8
Neutral 2-1 3-3
Last 5 4-1 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 73.1 73.9
Avg Pts Against 74.3 73.8
Massey -3.3 (#221) 2.1 (#133)
Bradley-Terry -0.38 (#211) 0.75 (#115)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.43 (#198) 1.08 (#106)
RPI 0.471 (#227) 0.550 (#89)
Shooting & Four Factors MOST NMSU
FG% 42.6% 43.6%
3PT% 28.1% 32.1%
REB / G 32.2 35.4
OREB / G 9.9 11.6
AST / TO 1.07 1.18
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.4% 50.0%
TOV% 16.9% 16.6%
ORB% 29.5% 32.8%
FT Rate 29.9% 24.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.4% 47.9%
Opp TOV% 17.9% 17.5%
DRB% 65.8% 70.3%
Opp FT Rate 27.0% 35.5%

Game Analysis

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