Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | NMSU -285 MOST +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +9 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | NMSU -9.6 (-18.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (+15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -8.6 (-17.6) | 142.2 (+16.8) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -8.1 (-17.1) | 142.2 (+16.8) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -8.0 (-17.0) | 145.2 (+13.8) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -9.0 (-18.0) | 143.8 (+15.2) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | MOST 89 – 82 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-5 | 11-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#114) | -2.7 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#162) | -0.40 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#141) | -0.40 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#131) | 0.475 (#222) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.4% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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