Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -2100 MARQ +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +16 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -24.8 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (-16.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -17.3 (-1.3) | 142.2 (-12.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -19.5 (-3.5) | 139.8 (-9.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -21.8 (-5.8) | 142.5 (-12.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -21.8 (-5.8) | 145.0 (-15.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | MARQ 68 – 62 CONN |
| Mar 6, 2025 | CONN 72 – 66 MARQ |
| Feb 2, 2025 | CONN 77 – 69 MARQ |
| Mar 16, 2024 | CONN 73 – 57 MARQ |
| Mar 7, 2024 | CONN 74 – 67 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-6 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 7-13 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-7 |
| Away | 9-3 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 21.9 (#9) | 0.9 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.95 (#6) | -0.94 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.99 (#6) | -1.02 (#236) |
| RPI | 0.680 (#3) | 0.455 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.70 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.0% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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