Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | MARQ -275 CONN +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +8 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | MARQ -6.2 (-14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (-3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -7.0 (-15.0) | 142.7 (+3.3) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -7.6 (-15.6) | 142.1 (+3.9) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -7.0 (-15.0) | 145.2 (+0.8) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -6.8 (-14.8) | 144.1 (+1.9) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | MARQ 68 – 62 CONN |
| Jan 4, 2026 | CONN 73 – 57 MARQ |
| Mar 6, 2025 | CONN 72 – 66 MARQ |
| Mar 16, 2024 | CONN 73 – 57 MARQ |
| Mar 7, 2024 | CONN 74 – 67 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 7-6 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 17.6 (#17) | 14.5 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.32 (#10) | 1.85 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.39 (#10) | 2.69 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.639 (#12) | 0.555 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 56.9% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 31.2% |
Game Analysis
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