Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -185 MARQ +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +6 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -1.1 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -2.0 (+4.0) | 143.8 (-5.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -3.1 (+2.9) | 141.8 (-3.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -1.8 (+4.2) | 143.1 (-5.1) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -1.7 (+4.3) | 143.1 (-5.1) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | MARQ 68 – 62 CONN |
| Jan 4, 2026 | CONN 73 – 57 MARQ |
| Feb 2, 2025 | CONN 77 – 69 MARQ |
| Mar 16, 2024 | CONN 73 – 57 MARQ |
| Mar 7, 2024 | CONN 74 – 67 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 13-7 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 14.6 (#31) | 16.7 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.06 (#47) | 2.59 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.04 (#36) | 3.35 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#67) | 0.615 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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