Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -500 MARQ +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +16 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -4.8 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (-16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -6.7 (+9.3) | 141.8 (-11.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -6.1 (+9.9) | 146.3 (-16.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -5.2 (+10.8) | 147.8 (-17.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -6.8 (+9.2) | 145.4 (-15.4) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | MARQ 68 – 62 CONN |
| Jan 4, 2026 | CONN 73 – 57 MARQ |
| Mar 6, 2025 | CONN 72 – 66 MARQ |
| Feb 2, 2025 | CONN 77 – 69 MARQ |
| Mar 7, 2024 | CONN 74 – 67 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-3 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 14-6 |
| Home | 17-0 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-3 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 12-0 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W13 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 21.6 (#4) | 16.8 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.83 (#3) | 2.73 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.50 (#3) | 3.29 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.626 (#7) | 0.612 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.87 | 1.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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