Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | MARQ +170 CONN -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +7 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -0.7 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -1.6 (-8.6) | 146.7 (-5.7) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -0.3 (-7.3) | 145.5 (-4.5) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -0.7 (-7.7) | 149.4 (-8.4) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -1.4 (-8.4) | 149.2 (-8.2) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | MARQ 68 – 62 CONN |
| Jan 4, 2026 | CONN 73 – 57 MARQ |
| Mar 6, 2025 | CONN 72 – 66 MARQ |
| Feb 2, 2025 | CONN 77 – 69 MARQ |
| Mar 16, 2024 | CONN 73 – 57 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 37-3 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 18-2 |
| Home | 14-2 | 17-0 |
| Away | 7-5 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 12-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W13 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 63.4 |
| Massey | 16.8 (#15) | 20.8 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#9) | 3.55 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.24 (#11) | 4.23 (#3) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#12) | 0.626 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 49.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 1.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 37.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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