Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | MARQ +410 CONN -550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +6 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -11.5 (+17.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (-14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -7.4 (+13.4) | 140.1 (-10.1) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -9.3 (+15.3) | 140.7 (-10.7) | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -9.0 (+15.0) | 142.1 (-12.1) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -11.5 (+17.5) | 141.5 (-11.5) | 17% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | CONN 73 – 57 MARQ |
| Mar 6, 2025 | CONN 72 – 66 MARQ |
| Feb 2, 2025 | CONN 77 – 69 MARQ |
| Mar 16, 2024 | CONN 73 – 57 MARQ |
| Mar 7, 2024 | CONN 74 – 67 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 34-6 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 17-3 |
| Home | 10-7 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-10 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#92) | 20.7 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#125) | 4.30 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#106) | 5.27 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#218) | 0.650 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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