Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | BEL -325 SIU +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +1 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | BEL -9.8 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.9 (-27.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -9.4 (-10.4) | 159.8 (-24.8) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -9.9 (-10.9) | 152.2 (-17.2) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -9.4 (-10.4) | 154.2 (-19.2) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -10.3 (-11.3) | 157.2 (-22.2) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | BEL 73 – 68 SIU |
| Feb 16, 2025 | BEL 73 – 68 SIU |
| Jan 9, 2025 | BEL 90 – 86 SIU |
| Feb 15, 2024 | BEL 82 – 68 SIU |
| Jan 3, 2024 | SIU 73 – 63 BEL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-6 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 10-10 |
| Home | 13-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 11-3 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.5 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#65) | 3.7 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.73 (#65) | -0.18 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#62) | -0.12 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#78) | 0.506 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 41.5% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.1% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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