Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | SIU +150 BEL -180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +5 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | BEL -2.8 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.4 (-16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -2.0 (-3.0) | 147.9 (-6.9) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -3.3 (-1.7) | 146.3 (-5.3) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -3.0 (-2.0) | 147.4 (-6.4) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -2.2 (-2.8) | 146.8 (-5.8) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | SIU 68 – 67 BEL |
| Feb 16, 2025 | BEL 73 – 68 SIU |
| Jan 9, 2025 | BEL 90 – 86 SIU |
| Feb 15, 2024 | BEL 82 – 68 SIU |
| Jan 3, 2024 | SIU 73 – 63 BEL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 26-6 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 16-4 |
| Home | 8-6 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-8 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 83.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#131) | 9.1 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#191) | 1.44 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#199) | 2.39 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#151) | 0.564 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 51.8% |
| 3PT% | 27.5% | 40.3% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 60.6% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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