Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | BEL -700 SIU +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +4 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -12.6 (-8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.3 (+13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -9.7 (-5.7) | 154.1 (+21.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -9.6 (-5.6) | 153.6 (+22.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -9.6 (-5.6) | 154.6 (+21.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -10.7 (-6.7) | 154.9 (+21.1) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | BEL 73 – 68 SIU |
| Jan 4, 2026 | SIU 68 – 67 BEL |
| Feb 16, 2025 | BEL 73 – 68 SIU |
| Feb 15, 2024 | BEL 82 – 68 SIU |
| Jan 3, 2024 | SIU 73 – 63 BEL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-5 | 7-7 |
| Away | 9-4 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#130) | -6.7 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#91) | -1.31 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#117) | -1.55 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#73) | 0.462 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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