Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | SIU -120 BEL +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +5 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | SIU -0.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.4 (-21.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -0.6 (-5.6) | 154.7 (-13.7) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -1.3 (-6.3) | 153.8 (-12.8) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -1.1 (-6.1) | 155.0 (-14.0) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -0.5 (-5.5) | 156.0 (-15.0) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | BEL 73 – 68 SIU |
| Jan 4, 2026 | SIU 68 – 67 BEL |
| Jan 9, 2025 | BEL 90 – 86 SIU |
| Feb 15, 2024 | BEL 82 – 68 SIU |
| Jan 3, 2024 | SIU 73 – 63 BEL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 13-7 |
| Home | 7-7 | 11-5 |
| Away | 5-8 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#180) | 1.3 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.00 (#166) | 0.81 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#169) | 0.65 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#147) | 0.543 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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