Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | BEL -175 SIU +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +14 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -0.8 (+14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -0.5 (+13.5) | 147.9 (+2.1) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -0.3 (+14.3) | 144.8 (+5.2) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -1.2 (+12.8) | 147.5 (+2.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -0.4 (+13.6) | 147.9 (+2.1) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | BEL 73 – 68 SIU |
| Jan 4, 2026 | SIU 68 – 67 BEL |
| Feb 16, 2025 | BEL 73 – 68 SIU |
| Jan 9, 2025 | BEL 90 – 86 SIU |
| Jan 3, 2024 | SIU 73 – 63 BEL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-2 | 13-5 |
| Away | 6-9 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#157) | 4.7 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#128) | 0.50 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#131) | 1.02 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#114) | 0.513 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 20.9% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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