Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | SIU -215 BEL +178 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +10 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -11.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (-15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -8.2 (+1.8) | 145.6 (-9.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -9.2 (+0.8) | 146.1 (-10.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -9.8 (+0.2) | 146.4 (-10.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -10.4 (-0.4) | 148.1 (-12.1) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | BEL 73 – 68 SIU |
| Jan 4, 2026 | SIU 68 – 67 BEL |
| Feb 16, 2025 | BEL 73 – 68 SIU |
| Jan 9, 2025 | BEL 90 – 86 SIU |
| Feb 15, 2024 | BEL 82 – 68 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 13-5 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#77) | -0.1 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#145) | 0.98 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#114) | 1.11 (#105) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#149) | 0.531 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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