Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | UCSD -142 HAW +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +10 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -3.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (+15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -2.6 (+7.4) | 137.6 (+18.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -5.5 (+4.5) | 139.1 (+16.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -3.0 (+7.0) | 135.4 (+20.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -3.0 (+7.0) | 136.9 (+19.1) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | HAW 72 – 67 UCSD |
| Feb 23, 2025 | UCSD 83 – 44 HAW |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UCSD 74 – 63 HAW |
| Feb 9, 2024 | HAW 94 – 86 UCSD |
| Jan 21, 2024 | UCSD 67 – 61 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-5 | 16-3 |
| Away | 8-5 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#81) | 8.5 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#82) | 1.12 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.06 (#72) | 1.84 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#68) | 0.512 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 40.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 33.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 41.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 77.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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