Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | HAW -285 UCSD +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +5 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -7.3 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -6.2 (-1.2) | 143.3 (-4.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -4.8 (+0.2) | 142.9 (-3.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -6.4 (-1.4) | 139.2 (-0.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -6.8 (-1.8) | 140.2 (-1.2) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | UCSD 83 – 73 HAW |
| Feb 23, 2025 | UCSD 83 – 44 HAW |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UCSD 74 – 63 HAW |
| Feb 9, 2024 | HAW 94 – 86 UCSD |
| Jan 21, 2024 | UCSD 67 – 61 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-8 |
| Home | 16-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-5 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#88) | 2.7 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#95) | 0.48 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#99) | 0.67 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#129) | 0.528 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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