Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
| Money | HAW -130 UCSD +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +8 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -2.9 (+10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (+43.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -2.6 (+10.6) | 140.0 (+40.0) | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -1.6 (+9.6) | 137.7 (+42.3) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -2.5 (+10.5) | 139.5 (+40.5) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -2.7 (+10.7) | 141.4 (+38.6) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | HAW 72 – 67 UCSD |
| Jan 4, 2026 | UCSD 83 – 73 HAW |
| Feb 23, 2025 | UCSD 83 – 44 HAW |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UCSD 74 – 63 HAW |
| Jan 21, 2024 | UCSD 67 – 61 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 15-5 |
| Home | 13-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#186) | 4.8 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#193) | 0.45 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#194) | 0.69 (#127) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#235) | 0.517 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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