Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | UCSD -175 HAW +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +6 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -8.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -6.4 (-0.4) | 135.2 (-7.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -4.7 (+1.3) | 134.4 (-6.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -6.4 (-0.4) | 134.4 (-6.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -7.0 (-1.0) | 134.8 (-6.8) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | HAW 72 – 67 UCSD |
| Jan 4, 2026 | UCSD 83 – 73 HAW |
| Feb 23, 2025 | UCSD 83 – 44 HAW |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UCSD 74 – 63 HAW |
| Feb 9, 2024 | HAW 94 – 86 UCSD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-6 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#110) | -0.1 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#154) | -0.26 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#142) | -0.23 (#196) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#168) | 0.472 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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