Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | UCSD -3000 HAW +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +39 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -17.7 (+21.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -16.4 (+22.6) | 136.3 (-9.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -15.4 (+23.6) | 137.1 (-10.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -16.4 (+22.6) | 139.0 (-12.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -16.3 (+22.7) | 138.9 (-11.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | HAW 72 – 67 UCSD |
| Jan 4, 2026 | UCSD 83 – 73 HAW |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UCSD 74 – 63 HAW |
| Feb 9, 2024 | HAW 94 – 86 UCSD |
| Jan 21, 2024 | UCSD 67 – 61 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 7-13 |
| Home | 13-2 | 13-7 |
| Away | 12-2 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#46) | -2.3 (#205) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#40) | -0.15 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.38 (#50) | -0.23 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#47) | 0.477 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 30.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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