Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | HAW +270 UCSD -340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +11 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSD -8.8 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (-1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -7.4 (-3.6) | 138.1 (-1.1) | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -7.9 (-3.1) | 139.4 (-2.4) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -7.0 (-4.0) | 138.5 (-1.5) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -7.6 (-3.4) | 139.4 (-2.4) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | HAW 72 – 67 UCSD |
| Jan 4, 2026 | UCSD 83 – 73 HAW |
| Feb 23, 2025 | UCSD 83 – 44 HAW |
| Feb 9, 2024 | HAW 94 – 86 UCSD |
| Jan 21, 2024 | UCSD 67 – 61 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 30-5 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 18-2 |
| Home | 13-7 | 13-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 12-2 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 63.0 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#179) | 11.1 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#168) | 1.79 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#172) | 1.69 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#200) | 0.566 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 32.5% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 24.0% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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