Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | STMN -750 DEN +525 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STMN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +4 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -10.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.6 (+16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -11.4 (-7.4) | 155.4 (+24.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -10.9 (-6.9) | 154.3 (+25.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -10.3 (-6.3) | 153.1 (+26.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -12.0 (-8.0) | 154.5 (+25.5) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | DEN 82 – 80 STMN |
| Mar 7, 2025 | STMN 80 – 62 DEN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | STMN 79 – 76 DEN |
| Jan 19, 2025 | STMN 74 – 62 DEN |
| Mar 3, 2024 | STMN 83 – 58 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STMN | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 8-8 |
| Home | 14-1 | 9-5 |
| Away | 8-7 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 84.0 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#122) | -3.4 (#222) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#116) | -0.08 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#124) | -0.75 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#120) | 0.495 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STMN | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 29.2 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 5.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 18.4% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 58.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 62.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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