Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | STMN -350 DEN +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STMN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +25 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -8.5 (+16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.2 (-15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -7.7 (+17.3) | 150.5 (-9.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -7.1 (+17.9) | 153.9 (-12.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -7.1 (+17.9) | 154.0 (-13.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -7.3 (+17.7) | 153.3 (-12.3) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | DEN 82 – 80 STMN |
| Jan 4, 2026 | STMN 92 – 88 DEN |
| Mar 7, 2025 | STMN 80 – 62 DEN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | STMN 79 – 76 DEN |
| Jan 19, 2025 | STMN 74 – 62 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STMN | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 6-10 |
| Home | 12-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 82.1 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#154) | -4.3 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#215) | -0.96 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#181) | -1.15 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#230) | 0.454 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STMN | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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