Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | STMN -600 DEN +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STMN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +18 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -10.9 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (-9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -8.1 (+9.9) | 146.7 (-4.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -8.9 (+9.1) | 143.6 (-1.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -8.9 (+9.1) | 144.9 (-2.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -8.2 (+9.8) | 145.0 (-3.0) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | DEN 82 – 80 STMN |
| Jan 4, 2026 | STMN 92 – 88 DEN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | STMN 79 – 76 DEN |
| Jan 19, 2025 | STMN 74 – 62 DEN |
| Mar 3, 2024 | STMN 83 – 58 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STMN | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 5-11 |
| Home | 14-0 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-8 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#121) | -8.2 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#125) | -1.57 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#129) | -2.33 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#99) | 0.421 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STMN | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.0% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 21.5% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 35.9% |
Game Analysis
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