Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | STMN -4000 DEN +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STMN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +12 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -20.3 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.3 (-23.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -15.2 (-3.2) | 155.3 (-19.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -15.7 (-3.7) | 155.1 (-19.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -14.6 (-2.6) | 152.4 (-16.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -15.5 (-3.5) | 153.8 (-17.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | DEN 82 – 80 STMN |
| Jan 4, 2026 | STMN 92 – 88 DEN |
| Mar 7, 2025 | STMN 80 – 62 DEN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | STMN 79 – 76 DEN |
| Mar 3, 2024 | STMN 83 – 58 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STMN | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 5-11 |
| Home | 14-0 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-8 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#99) | -11.8 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#92) | -2.25 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#88) | -3.60 (#350) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#94) | 0.367 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STMN | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 39.6% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.8% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 21.0% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 36.0% |
Game Analysis
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