Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | DEN +425 STMN -650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +3 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | STMN -11.4 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -9.5 (+6.5) | 150.6 (+4.4) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -9.7 (+6.7) | 149.0 (+6.0) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -10.1 (+7.1) | 150.6 (+4.4) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -10.0 (+7.0) | 149.0 (+6.0) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | DEN 82 – 80 STMN |
| Jan 4, 2026 | STMN 92 – 88 DEN |
| Mar 7, 2025 | STMN 80 – 62 DEN |
| Jan 19, 2025 | STMN 74 – 62 DEN |
| Mar 3, 2024 | STMN 83 – 58 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 12-4 |
| Home | 8-6 | 14-0 |
| Away | 3-12 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -11.0 (#328) | 3.6 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#329) | 0.73 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.13 (#347) | 0.76 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.394 (#342) | 0.529 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 58.3% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 21.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.3% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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