Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 168.5 Under |
| Money | DEN +145 STMN -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +2 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -4.4 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.4 (-6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -2.7 (+4.7) | 159.6 (+2.4) | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -2.9 (+4.9) | 158.4 (+3.6) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -2.6 (+4.6) | 158.8 (+3.2) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -1.7 (+3.7) | 160.3 (+1.7) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | STMN 92 – 88 DEN |
| Mar 7, 2025 | STMN 80 – 62 DEN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | STMN 79 – 76 DEN |
| Jan 19, 2025 | STMN 74 – 62 DEN |
| Mar 3, 2024 | STMN 83 – 58 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 12-4 |
| Home | 9-5 | 14-1 |
| Away | 6-11 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.0 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#217) | 4.2 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#236) | 0.43 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#238) | 0.67 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#240) | 0.536 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 51.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 59.7% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.8% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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