Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | SUU +210 UTA -258 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SUU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +9 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | UTA -12.4 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (+26.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -10.9 (+1.9) | 133.3 (+29.7) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -11.4 (+2.4) | 131.7 (+31.3) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -12.1 (+3.1) | 131.8 (+31.2) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -11.3 (+2.3) | 134.6 (+28.4) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | UTA 69 – 63 SUU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | SUU 78 – 73 UTA |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UTA 80 – 61 SUU |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UTA 70 – 68 SUU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SUU 73 – 68 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SUU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 2-15 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -14.8 (#350) | 1.4 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.27 (#331) | 0.68 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.22 (#334) | 0.85 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.381 (#346) | 0.543 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SUU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 26.3% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.5% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 31.2% |
Game Analysis
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