Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | UTA -425 SUU +330 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SUU +5 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | UTA -12.4 (-17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (+7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -10.2 (-15.2) | 143.0 (+8.0) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -9.9 (-14.9) | 142.0 (+9.0) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -9.7 (-14.7) | 143.9 (+7.1) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -10.4 (-15.4) | 142.4 (+8.6) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | UTA 69 – 63 SUU |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UTA 80 – 61 SUU |
| Jan 4, 2026 | UTA 86 – 77 SUU |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UTA 70 – 68 SUU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SUU 73 – 68 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-4 | 7-6 |
| Away | 8-8 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 81.3 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#161) | -9.3 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#123) | -1.05 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#123) | -1.25 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#118) | 0.433 (#304) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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