Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | UTA -650 SUU +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +2 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | UTA -7.9 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (-13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -7.7 (-5.7) | 142.5 (-4.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -5.1 (-3.1) | 143.5 (-5.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -5.0 (-3.0) | 143.2 (-5.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -5.2 (-3.2) | 144.3 (-6.3) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | UTA 69 – 63 SUU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | SUU 78 – 73 UTA |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UTA 80 – 61 SUU |
| Jan 4, 2026 | UTA 86 – 77 SUU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SUU 73 – 68 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 4-12 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-7 |
| Away | 3-11 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#204) | -6.9 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#241) | -1.06 (#264) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#225) | -1.31 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#247) | 0.431 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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