Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | UTA -440 SUU +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +19 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | UTA -13.9 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -11.6 (+7.4) | 140.7 (+0.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -10.5 (+8.5) | 143.2 (-2.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -10.5 (+8.5) | 139.6 (+1.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -11.0 (+8.0) | 140.5 (+0.5) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | UTA 69 – 63 SUU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | SUU 78 – 73 UTA |
| Jan 4, 2026 | UTA 86 – 77 SUU |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UTA 70 – 68 SUU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SUU 73 – 68 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-4 | 7-6 |
| Away | 8-8 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 81.3 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#144) | -9.5 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#94) | -1.15 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#106) | -1.43 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#86) | 0.425 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 32.3% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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