Betting Lines
| Spread | FDU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | SFPA +110 FDU -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFPA +3 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | FDU -4.2 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (+19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FDU -3.1 (+6.1) | 133.6 (+33.4) | 24% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FDU -3.6 (+6.6) | 135.4 (+31.6) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FDU -3.7 (+6.7) | 134.7 (+32.3) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FDU -3.9 (+6.9) | 133.2 (+33.8) | 22% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | FDU 66 – 59 SFPA |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SFPA 85 – 80 FDU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SFPA 75 – 71 FDU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | FDU 93 – 74 SFPA |
| Jan 16, 2024 | FDU 81 – 71 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 5-8 | 8-6 |
| Away | 2-14 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 65.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.1 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -21.2 (#363) | -13.2 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.38 (#363) | -2.75 (#344) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.31 (#363) | -3.64 (#343) |
| RPI | 0.385 (#344) | 0.397 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 14.3% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 63.1% | 57.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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