Betting Lines
| Spread | SFPA -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | SFPA -105 FDU -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +10 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | SFPA -2.6 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFPA -0.2 (-10.2) | 145.3 (+6.7) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFPA -0.5 (-10.5) | 144.2 (+7.8) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFPA -0.4 (-10.4) | 145.0 (+7.0) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFPA -0.2 (-10.2) | 147.8 (+4.2) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | FDU 66 – 59 SFPA |
| Jan 4, 2026 | SFPA 85 – 82 FDU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SFPA 85 – 80 FDU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SFPA 75 – 71 FDU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | FDU 93 – 74 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-22 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 3-13 | 9-7 |
| Home | 6-8 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-14 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 78.4 |
| Massey | -12.8 (#343) | -11.4 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.37 (#340) | -1.76 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.43 (#349) | -2.50 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.377 (#347) | 0.395 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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