Betting Lines
| Spread | FDU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | FDU -355 SFPA +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +7 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | FDU -8.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (-23.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FDU -5.7 (+1.3) | 139.9 (-14.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FDU -6.6 (+0.4) | 141.4 (-16.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FDU -6.6 (+0.4) | 141.3 (-16.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FDU -5.9 (+1.1) | 140.8 (-15.8) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | SFPA 85 – 82 FDU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SFPA 85 – 80 FDU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SFPA 75 – 71 FDU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | FDU 93 – 74 SFPA |
| Jan 16, 2024 | FDU 81 – 71 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-6 | 5-8 |
| Away | 3-15 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.1 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 83.1 |
| Massey | -11.1 (#323) | -16.4 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.33 (#344) | -2.79 (#354) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.86 (#341) | -3.80 (#357) |
| RPI | 0.401 (#344) | 0.391 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 58.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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