Betting Lines
| Spread | FDU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | FDU -270 SFPA +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +19 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | FDU -6.2 (+12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (+18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FDU -4.5 (+14.5) | 144.2 (+22.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FDU -4.9 (+14.1) | 145.3 (+21.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FDU -4.7 (+14.3) | 143.4 (+23.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FDU -4.9 (+14.1) | 144.2 (+22.8) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | FDU 66 – 59 SFPA |
| Jan 4, 2026 | SFPA 85 – 82 FDU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SFPA 85 – 80 FDU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SFPA 75 – 71 FDU |
| Jan 16, 2024 | FDU 81 – 71 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 3-13 |
| Home | 7-7 | 6-8 |
| Away | 8-9 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -11.2 (#331) | -14.0 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#313) | -2.37 (#343) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.26 (#325) | -3.19 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.423 (#316) | 0.392 (#341) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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