Betting Lines
| Spread | FDU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | FDU -200 SFPA +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFPA +4 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | FDU -5.9 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FDU -4.4 (-8.4) | 149.0 (-3.0) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FDU -3.8 (-7.8) | 148.9 (-2.9) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FDU -3.8 (-7.8) | 149.7 (-3.7) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FDU -3.8 (-7.8) | 148.9 (-2.9) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | FDU 66 – 59 SFPA |
| Jan 4, 2026 | SFPA 85 – 82 FDU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SFPA 85 – 80 FDU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | FDU 93 – 74 SFPA |
| Jan 16, 2024 | FDU 81 – 71 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 8-8 |
| Home | 9-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-15 | 6-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#305) | -10.5 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.41 (#298) | -1.45 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#304) | -2.08 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#304) | 0.452 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 14.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 62.4% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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