Betting Lines
| Spread | FDU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | SFPA +100 FDU -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFPA +5 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | SFPA -1.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (+15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FDU -0.3 (+5.3) | 147.3 (+17.7) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFPA -0.7 (+4.3) | 146.2 (+18.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFPA -0.7 (+4.3) | 145.6 (+19.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFPA -0.8 (+4.2) | 146.3 (+18.7) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | FDU 66 – 59 SFPA |
| Jan 4, 2026 | SFPA 85 – 82 FDU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SFPA 75 – 71 FDU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | FDU 93 – 74 SFPA |
| Jan 16, 2024 | FDU 81 – 71 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 8-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-13 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -10.1 (#326) | -8.8 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#312) | -1.67 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#312) | -2.07 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#259) | 0.431 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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