Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | PFW -600 CLE +440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +3 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -11.3 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.2 (-18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -9.0 (-6.0) | 151.8 (-6.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -8.7 (-5.7) | 152.1 (-7.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -9.2 (-6.2) | 151.4 (-6.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -9.5 (-6.5) | 151.8 (-6.8) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | PFW 92 – 86 CLE |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CLE 68 – 57 PFW |
| Jan 31, 2025 | CLE 68 – 58 PFW |
| Feb 8, 2024 | CLE 75 – 72 PFW |
| Jan 20, 2024 | CLE 75 – 68 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 6-14 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-8 |
| Away | 6-11 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 88.6 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#252) | -13.5 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#197) | -2.38 (#336) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#220) | -3.05 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#204) | 0.378 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 27.9 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 33.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.7% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 62.9% | 61.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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