Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | CLE +145 PFW -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +6 | 178 | Lost |
| Massey | PFW -1.9 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.0 (+14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -0.4 (-5.6) | 152.7 (+25.3) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -1.3 (-4.7) | 155.0 (+23.0) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -0.8 (-5.2) | 155.6 (+22.4) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -1.0 (-5.0) | 154.9 (+23.1) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | PFW 74 – 71 CLE |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CLE 68 – 57 PFW |
| Jan 31, 2025 | CLE 68 – 58 PFW |
| Feb 8, 2024 | CLE 75 – 72 PFW |
| Jan 20, 2024 | CLE 75 – 68 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLE | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 11-9 |
| Home | 7-8 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 88.6 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -10.6 (#316) | -5.8 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#282) | -0.29 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#286) | -0.81 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#302) | 0.484 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLE | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 28.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 21.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 62.0% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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