Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | PFW -210 CLE +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLE +10 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | PFW -6.3 (-16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (-26.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -3.9 (-13.9) | 147.6 (-21.6) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -4.6 (-14.6) | 145.6 (-19.6) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -4.4 (-14.4) | 147.0 (-21.0) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -4.6 (-14.6) | 148.3 (-22.3) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | PFW 92 – 86 CLE |
| Jan 4, 2026 | PFW 74 – 71 CLE |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CLE 68 – 57 PFW |
| Feb 8, 2024 | CLE 75 – 72 PFW |
| Jan 20, 2024 | CLE 75 – 68 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 14-6 |
| Home | 12-2 | 14-4 |
| Away | 6-10 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#121) | -0.6 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#142) | 0.52 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#117) | 0.63 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#121) | 0.523 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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