Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | PFW -175 CLE +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLE +3 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | PFW -6.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -3.4 (-6.4) | 150.2 (-3.2) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -4.3 (-7.3) | 148.5 (-1.5) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -3.8 (-6.8) | 150.2 (-3.2) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -4.0 (-7.0) | 152.5 (-5.5) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | PFW 92 – 86 CLE |
| Jan 4, 2026 | PFW 74 – 71 CLE |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CLE 68 – 57 PFW |
| Jan 31, 2025 | CLE 68 – 58 PFW |
| Jan 20, 2024 | CLE 75 – 68 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-5 | 14-3 |
| Away | 10-8 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.3 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#151) | -2.0 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#186) | -0.14 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#178) | -0.40 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#223) | 0.501 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 63.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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