Betting Lines
| Spread | CLE -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | CLE -175 PFW +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLE +7 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | CLE -1.2 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.8 (-15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLE -2.0 (+5.0) | 157.2 (-14.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLE -2.0 (+5.0) | 155.2 (-12.2) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CLE -0.8 (+6.2) | 156.2 (-13.2) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLE -1.3 (+5.7) | 157.5 (-14.5) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | PFW 92 – 86 CLE |
| Jan 4, 2026 | PFW 74 – 71 CLE |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CLE 68 – 57 PFW |
| Jan 31, 2025 | CLE 68 – 58 PFW |
| Feb 8, 2024 | CLE 75 – 72 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLE | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-5 |
| Away | 6-10 | 10-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 78.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#194) | 1.0 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#175) | -0.12 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#198) | -0.06 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#182) | 0.470 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLE | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 62.3% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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