Betting Lines
| Spread | CLE -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | CLE -145 PFW +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLE +11 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | CLE -1.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.2 (-26.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLE -1.0 (+10.0) | 148.2 (-23.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLE -1.8 (+9.2) | 146.5 (-21.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLE -2.0 (+9.0) | 147.4 (-22.4) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CLE -0.9 (+10.1) | 148.6 (-23.6) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | PFW 92 – 86 CLE |
| Jan 4, 2026 | PFW 74 – 71 CLE |
| Jan 31, 2025 | CLE 68 – 58 PFW |
| Feb 8, 2024 | CLE 75 – 72 PFW |
| Jan 20, 2024 | CLE 75 – 68 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLE | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-4 | 12-2 |
| Away | 7-7 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#175) | 0.9 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#161) | 0.12 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#156) | 0.22 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#167) | 0.516 (#156) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLE | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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