Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | CSUF +154 UCI -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCI +22 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | CSUF -0.6 (-22.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.1 (-9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -1.3 (-20.7) | 154.2 (-4.2) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUF -0.7 (-22.7) | 149.5 (+0.5) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSUF -0.6 (-22.6) | 151.4 (-1.4) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -0.2 (-22.2) | 153.9 (-3.9) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | UCI 86 – 65 CSUF |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UCI 76 – 51 CSUF |
| Jan 17, 2025 | UCI 82 – 62 CSUF |
| Mar 10, 2024 | UCI 81 – 71 CSUF |
| Jan 5, 2024 | UCI 75 – 67 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-4 | 12-5 |
| Away | 6-10 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.2 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#201) | 1.0 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#208) | 0.50 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#186) | 0.54 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#184) | 0.521 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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