Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | UCI -360 CSUF +285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCI +21 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | UCI -7.5 (+13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (-1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -9.5 (+11.5) | 152.9 (-1.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -5.6 (+15.4) | 147.8 (+3.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -5.8 (+15.2) | 150.2 (+0.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -6.1 (+14.9) | 152.5 (-1.5) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | UCI 86 – 64 CSUF |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UCI 76 – 51 CSUF |
| Jan 17, 2025 | UCI 82 – 62 CSUF |
| Mar 10, 2024 | UCI 81 – 71 CSUF |
| Jan 5, 2024 | UCI 75 – 67 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCI | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 82.2 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#127) | -1.8 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#130) | -0.14 (#183) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#123) | -0.00 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#104) | 0.503 (#179) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCI | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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