Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | MIZ +260 FLA -325 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +2 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -7.1 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (-6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -3.4 (+5.4) | 150.8 (-0.8) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -5.3 (+7.3) | 147.5 (+2.5) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -6.6 (+8.6) | 147.5 (+2.5) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -7.4 (+9.4) | 149.3 (+0.7) | 24% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2025 | FLA 95 – 81 MIZ |
| Jan 15, 2025 | MIZ 83 – 82 FLA |
| Feb 28, 2024 | FLA 83 – 74 MIZ |
| Jan 21, 2024 | FLA 79 – 67 MIZ |
| Jan 14, 2023 | FLA 73 – 64 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 16-2 |
| Home | 15-3 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-6 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.2 | 87.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#90) | 17.7 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#81) | 2.37 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#73) | 3.75 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#143) | 0.596 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.8% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 47.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 17.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.6% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 38.8% | 44.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 30.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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