Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | MIZ +125 FLA -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +12 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | FLA -3.9 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.0 (-16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -2.9 (-9.1) | 157.8 (-11.8) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -2.8 (-9.2) | 157.1 (-11.1) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -2.8 (-9.2) | 158.1 (-12.1) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -3.1 (-8.9) | 158.6 (-12.6) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | MIZ 76 – 74 FLA |
| Mar 14, 2025 | FLA 95 – 81 MIZ |
| Jan 15, 2025 | MIZ 83 – 82 FLA |
| Feb 28, 2024 | FLA 83 – 74 MIZ |
| Jan 14, 2023 | FLA 73 – 64 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 0-18 | 11-7 |
| Home | 6-11 | 14-1 |
| Away | 2-10 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 7-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L19 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 85.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 79.2 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#116) | 11.1 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#141) | 1.58 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#123) | 2.22 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#148) | 0.578 (#61) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 44.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 16.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 40.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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